9) RECESSIONS

 

·        10 of the last 11 recessions in the United States have begun under Republican Administrations

BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES

DURATION IN MONTHS

Peak Month

(Peak Quarter)

Administration at Peak

Trough

Contraction

peak to trough

Expansion

trough to peak

Cycle

trough to trough

Cycle

peak to peak

July 1953(Q2)

Eisenhower (R)

May 1954(Q2)

10

45

55

56

Aug 1957(Q3)

Eisenhower (R)

April 1958(Q2)

8

39

47

49

April 1960(Q2)

Eisenhower (R)

Feb 1961(Q1)

10

24

34

32

Dec 1969(Q4)

Nixon (R)

Nov 1970(Q4)

11

106

117

116

Nov 1973(Q4)

Nixon (R)

March 1975(Q1)

16

36

52

47

Jan 1980(Q1)

Carter (D)

July 1980(Q3)

6

58

64

74

July 1981(Q3)

Reagan (R)

Nov 1982(Q4)

16

12

28

18

July 1990(Q2)

Bush (R)

March 1991(Q1)

8

92

100

108

March 2001(Q1)

Bush (R)

Nov 2001(Q4)

8

120

128

128

Dec 2007(Q4)

Bush (R)

June 2009(Q2)

18

73

91

81

Feb 2020(19Q4)

Trump (R)

April 2020(Q2)

2

128

130

146

·        Total number of months the Economy has contracted during Republican Presidents: 102

·        Total number of months the Economy has contracted during Democrat Presidents: 11

o   Note 5 months of 2009 ascribed to Obama

·        Since World War 2, The US Economy has been in a recession for nearly 10 times as many months under Republican Presidents versus Democratic Presidents

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions

AO 08/23